Safe withdrawal rate calculator (sustainable spending)

Test a withdrawal rate against return, inflation, and time horizon. Compare to 4% and explore sustainable spending levels with simple scenarios.

Your inputs

About this calculator

See whether your starting withdrawal rate could last through retirement. You pick a percent of savings in year one; we raise that dollar amount each year with inflation and test if the portfolio runs out.

Your information

Enter your best estimates below.

Savings you’ll draw from in retirement.
Percent of starting balance you take in year one.
4.00%

Your scenario

Portfolio survives the full 25 years with about $1,338,497 left at the end.

How we run the estimate

Change return and inflation below. Your balance and withdrawal rate are in the main panel.

Expected average yearly return after withdrawals.
6.0%
How much the dollar amount you withdraw rises each year.
2.5%
Years tested
25 years
Withdrawal pattern
Percent of starting balance in year one, then that dollar amount rises with your inflation rate
Each year
Withdrawal happens first, then the remainder grows
Highest sustainable rate
Found by testing rates — not a replay of historical markets
Not included
Taxes, fees, required withdrawals, or returns that change every year

Your results

Withdrawal rate test
Highest starting rate (as a percent of your beginning balance) that still funds every year in this model—not a recommendation, just a math ceiling.
5.81%

With 6.0% return and 2.5% spending growth over 25 years, this is the highest year-one withdrawal percent that still funds every year in this model. Your rate is 4.00% ($40,000 in year one).

Your rate vs. max

4.00% (1.81% under)

Year-one withdrawal

$40,000

Portfolio balance: your rate vs. 4%

Solid line = your selected rate; dashed = classic 4% initial rate with the same return and inflation assumptions.

  • 4% starting rate (reference)
  • Your withdrawal rate
1234567891113151719212325Year$0$350K$700K$1.1M$1.4M

Ending balance by starting rate

Same return and inflation path; bars show portfolio left after 25 years (zero if depleted earlier).

3%3.5%Yours (4.00%)4.5%5%$0$550K$1.1M$1.6M$2.2M

Year-by-year (your rate)

Nominal withdrawal and end‑of‑year balance after return.

YearWithdrawalEnd balance
1$40,000$1,017,600
2$41,000$1,035,196
3$42,025$1,052,761
4$43,076$1,070,267
5$44,153$1,087,681
6$45,256$1,104,970
7$46,388$1,122,097
8$47,547$1,139,023
9$48,736$1,155,704
10$49,955$1,172,095
11$51,203$1,188,145
12$52,483$1,203,801
13$53,796$1,219,006
14$55,140$1,233,697
15$56,519$1,247,809
16$57,932$1,261,270
17$59,380$1,274,003
18$60,865$1,285,926
19$62,386$1,296,952
20$63,946$1,306,987
21$65,545$1,315,929
22$67,183$1,323,670
23$68,863$1,330,096
24$70,584$1,335,082
25$72,349$1,338,497

Beyond this calculator

A sustainable withdrawal rate sits inside a larger income plan

This tool stress-tests one starting rate against return and inflation assumptions. A complete Retirelens plan also layers in:

  • Required withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts after you reach the starting age
  • Tax cost on each dollar withdrawn
  • Sequences of poor returns early in retirement
  • Medical and long-term care spending that tends to rise with age

Free to startNo credit card required

Interpretation

What this means

Planning context for the estimates above. Not tax, legal, or investment advice.

Under a flat 6.0% return and 2.5% withdrawal growth, the model caps a sustainable starting rate near 5.81%. Your 4.00% choice withdraws $40,000 in year one — which this simplified path can sustain.

Classic retirement research tested how often past U.S. markets supported various withdrawal rates; past results are not guarantees of the future. Use this page to understand sensitivity to return and inflation, then stress‑test with a professional using richer data.

Methodology

How this calculator works

The rules and math behind this estimate.

We implement the common academic withdrawal rule: year‑one spending equals your starting portfolio times the initial withdrawal rate; each subsequent year’s spending equals that first dollar amount grown by inflation. At the end of each year we subtract the withdrawal, then grow the remainder by your expected return.

The “maximum sustainable” rate is found by binary search: the largest initial percentage such that the portfolio can fund every inflation‑indexed withdrawal through your horizon without balance going negative in this discrete annual model. If even a tiny rate fails (for example return below inflation forever), the reported maximum will be zero.

This is not a probability-of-success simulation, does not vary stock/bond mix, and ignores taxes, fees, required IRA withdrawals, and irregular cash flows. It complements — rather than replaces — deeper planning tools and professional advice.

Help

Frequently asked questions

Straight answers to common questions about this calculator.

How much can I withdraw from savings each year?

This tool tests a starting percent of your balance, then raises that dollar amount with inflation each year. It finds a rate that does not run out of money in the years you pick — using your assumptions.

What is the 4% rule?

A common starting point: withdraw 4% of your savings in year one, then adjust for inflation. It came from historical U.S. market studies. Many planners now use a bit less when markets look expensive.

Do fees and taxes matter?

Yes in real life. This tool does not subtract fees or taxes. Use a lower return or talk to a tax pro for a closer picture.

What if I can spend less after a bad market?

Cutting spending when investments drop often helps savings last longer. This tool keeps spending steady until money runs out — so real life may look better if you can flex.

Your full retirement picture

Retirement is more than money

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A good retirement plan covers money, health, how you spend your time, people you care about, and what you pass on. That is how Retirelens looks at the full picture.

Finance

Know where you stand and what to do next with your money.

74% of planners reported satisfaction with retirement income vs. 43% of non-planners (Goldman Sachs)

Health

Secure solid coverage, stay ahead with preventive care and healthy habits a staple.

68% of adults ages 50–64 said they were concerned that federal policy changes could affect their health insurance coverage. (University of Michigan)

Purpose

Shape days you look forward to, with steps to get there.

Research shows that a stronger sense of purpose is associated with lower mortality risk among adults over age 50. (American Medical Association)

Connections

Strengthen relationships and build a support circle.

A longitudinal study of adults aged 65+ found that older adults with more diverse social networks had a lower risk of death and better cognitive and physical function than those with less diverse networks. (Chico Health Aging Project)

Legacy

Organize your assets and document so your family isn't left guessing.

Without a proper estate plan, more than half of families experience disputes or have assets end up under court control. (LegalShield)