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Safe withdrawal rate calculator

Test a withdrawal rate against return, inflation, and time horizon. Compare to 4% and explore sustainable spending levels with simple scenarios.

Your information

Enter your best estimates below.

4.00%

Your scenario

Portfolio survives the full 25 years with about $1,338,497 left at the end.

Your result

Withdrawal rate test
5.81%

With 6.0% return and 2.5% spending growth over 25 years, this is the highest year-one withdrawal percent that still funds every year in this model. Your rate is 4.00% ($40,000 in year one).

Your rate vs. max

4.00% (1.81% under)

Year-one withdrawal

$40,000

Unsaved result

Portfolio balance: your rate vs. 4%

Solid line = your selected rate; dashed = classic 4% initial rate with the same return and inflation assumptions.

  • 4% starting rate (reference)
  • Your withdrawal rate
123456789101113151719212325Year$0$350K$700K$1.1M$1.4M

Year-by-year (your rate)

Nominal withdrawal and end‑of‑year balance after return.

YearWithdrawalEnd balance
1$40,000$1,017,600
2$41,000$1,035,196
3$42,025$1,052,761
4$43,076$1,070,267
5$44,153$1,087,681
6$45,256$1,104,970
7$46,388$1,122,097
8$47,547$1,139,023
9$48,736$1,155,704
10$49,955$1,172,095
11$51,203$1,188,145
12$52,483$1,203,801
13$53,796$1,219,006
14$55,140$1,233,697
15$56,519$1,247,809
16$57,932$1,261,270
17$59,380$1,274,003
18$60,865$1,285,926
19$62,386$1,296,952
20$63,946$1,306,987
21$65,545$1,315,929
22$67,183$1,323,670
23$68,863$1,330,096
24$70,584$1,335,082
25$72,349$1,338,497

Your Spending estimate

Your Spending is one piece of your retirement plan

You are here. Five more steps bring every piece together to answer the bigger question: will your money last as long as you do?

Your Spending is one piece of your retirement plan

Your SpendingPieces still to add

  • Portfolio
  • Your withdrawal rate

Your retirement plan will also answer

  • When can I and my spouse retire?
  • How much should I save?
  • When should I claim Social Security?
  • Should I do Roth conversions?
  • How much can I safely withdraw?
  • Should I pay off debt first?
  • Would my plan weather market ups and downs?

How it works · Your path to a full Finance plan

  1. Spending

    You are here

    5.81%

  2. Income

    Current income plus Social Security, pensions and annuities

  3. Expenses

    Day-to-day living, healthcare premiums and planned future costs

  4. Assets

    Homes, properties, investments and savings

  5. Non-mortgage debts

    Car loans, credit cards and other balances

  6. Annual savings and review

    Confirm yearly savings, then see your full plan

Interpretation

Understand your results

Planning context for the estimates above. Not tax, legal, or investment advice.

Under a flat 6.0% return and 2.5% withdrawal growth, the model caps a sustainable starting rate near 5.81%. Your 4.00% choice withdraws $40,000 in year one — which this simplified path can sustain.

Classic retirement research tested how often past U.S. markets supported various withdrawal rates; past results are not guarantees of the future. Use this page to understand sensitivity to return and inflation, then stress‑test with a professional using richer data.

Methodology

How this calculator works

The rules and math behind this estimate.

We implement the common academic withdrawal rule: year‑one spending equals your starting portfolio times the initial withdrawal rate; each subsequent year’s spending equals that first dollar amount grown by inflation. At the end of each year we subtract the withdrawal, then grow the remainder by your expected return.

The “maximum sustainable” rate is found by binary search: the largest initial percentage such that the portfolio can fund every inflation‑indexed withdrawal through your horizon without balance going negative in this discrete annual model. If even a tiny rate fails (for example return below inflation forever), the reported maximum will be zero.

This is not a probability-of-success simulation, does not vary stock/bond mix, and ignores taxes, fees, required IRA withdrawals, and irregular cash flows. It complements — rather than replaces — deeper planning tools and professional advice.

Frequently asked questions

Straight answers to common questions about this calculator.

How much can I withdraw from savings each year?

This tool tests a starting percent of your balance, then raises that dollar amount with inflation each year. It finds a rate that does not run out of money in the years you pick — using your assumptions.

What is the 4% rule?

A common starting point: withdraw 4% of your savings in year one, then adjust for inflation. It came from historical U.S. market studies. Many planners now use a bit less when markets look expensive.

Do fees and taxes matter?

Yes in real life. This tool does not subtract fees or taxes. Use a lower return or talk to a tax pro for a closer picture.

What if I can spend less after a bad market?

Cutting spending when investments drop often helps savings last longer. This tool keeps spending steady until money runs out — so real life may look better if you can flex.

Retirement is more than your money

Your retirement plan is one of five pillars Retirelens helps you plan.

Finance

Know where you stand and what to do next with your money.

Health

Stay on top of coverage, care and habits that keep you well.

Purpose

Shape days you look forward to, with steps to get there.

Connections

Strengthen relationships and build a support circle.

Legacy

Organize what matters and document so your family isn't left guessing.